Since President-elect Donald Trump’s political comeback on Tuesday, Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters have celebrated his victory as their own.
In many ways, nowhere has Trump’s political strategy been more rigorously mirrored than in Brazil. Reenergized, Bolsonaro’s base has set its sights on the 2026 election, seeing Trump’s resurgence as evidence that a similar return could unfold in Brazil.
Although barred from running until 2030, Bolsonaro congratulated Trump in a series of videos and posts drawing comparisons between their paths and saying he hoped Trump’s return to power would inspire Brazil “to complete our mission.”
Over the years, Bolsonaro has leaned into the nickname of “Trump of the tropics,” and both men have built parallel legacies – each facing legal and personal trials, including assassination attempts and indictments, and both elevating their families to roles of political prominence.
A linchpin of Bolsonaro’s strategy has been his alliance with prominent US conservatives, a task led by his son Eduardo. Since at least 2018, Eduardo has frequently traveled to the United States, cultivating relationships with figures like former Trump adviser Steve Bannon and American Conservative Union chair Matt Schlapp.
His initial meeting with Bannon, who later served as an adviser to Bolsonaro’s campaign, cemented an enduring alliance that granted Bolsonaro’s movement access to tactics tested in the US.
“What Bolsonaro stands for is what the people of Brazil stand for,” Bannon said in February. “He won his second term just like President Trump. It was stolen from Trump. It was stolen from Bolsonaro. And the reason he’s got momentum is he stands for what the people believe in.”
As Eduardo expanded these connections, other Brazilian lawmakers began to join him on US tours, attending meetings with Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene and George Santos. Other visits included a conservative summit at the United Nations and meeting with the Organization of American States, where rising Brazilian congressman Nikolas Ferreira addressed the overstepping of the courts and “political and judicial revenge” against Bolsonaro supporters following Brazil’s January 8 insurrection.
Some of this alignment strategy is already working. In September, Florida Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar (R) called for any visa requests by Brazil’s Supreme Court Justices to be denied on the basis that their decisions violate protections on free speech in Brazil of US citizens like Elon Musk.
Bolsonaro’s movement has extended beyond rhetoric, attempting to build durable political infrastructure to support the movement. Eduardo spearheaded the creation of CPAC Brasil, a Brazilian adaptation of the US Conservative Political Action Conference. With appearances from US conservatives like Bannon, Donald Trump Jr., and Gettr founder Jason Miller, CPAC Brasil amplified themes of nationalism, family values, and opposition to globalism, solidifying these tenets within Brazilian conservatism. The “God, gays, and guns” issues and talking points are easily translated to a Brazilian audience already used to hearing it from US politicians.
Eduardo also co-founded the Conservative-Liberal Institute in 2019, an organization that has mostly co-sponsored events but states their goal is to become “the country’s leading institute for political education.” Separately, Eduardo himself offers online courses for first time political candidates and local leaders. For $50, you can learn the basics of political theory, how to win an election, and how to grow your social media following.
The influencer politician model has taken off in Brazil, and the hard right has expertly developed a rich tapestry of conservative media personalities who amplify their message on various platforms, often dismissing critical media as “fake news.” Much like Trump’s base, Bolsonaro’s supporters created a self-sustaining media ecosystem.
Questioning democratic institutions
Bolsonaro’s skepticism toward democratic institutions has been another hallmark of his alignment with Trump’s tactics. Throughout the 2022 election cycle, he cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting integrity, igniting tensions that erupted in the January 8 insurrection, when his supporters stormed Brazil’s Supreme Court, Congress, and presidential offices — a stark reflection of the January 6 Capitol riot in the United States.
The confrontation with Brazil’s judiciary only escalated from there. In recent years, the Supreme Court expanded its powers, drawing on precedents set by the January 8 investigations to broaden its authority over cases involving political extremism, disinformation, and threats to democratic order. While some view this as essential to protecting Brazil’s democracy, Bolsonaro’s allies decry it as judicial overreach aimed at curtailing conservative voices.
For Bolsonaro’s supporters, the court’s increased authority amplifies their narrative of “political revenge.” In November 2023, Ferreira and other Bolsonaro allies spoke out against these perceived judicial excesses while in Washington, describing the judiciary’s actions as a crackdown on free speech and political freedoms.
Casting the Supreme Court as a political adversary has become central to Bolsonaro’s narrative, energizing his base with calls for international oversight as they look ahead to 2026.
But that road is rife with challenges: Bolsonaro is still barred from office, so unless a court reverses that decision, it’s a moot point. Institutions have tightened regulations on misinformation, limiting his online influence. Investigations into the attacks on Brasilia are also still ongoing, bringing legal pressure upon him, his family, and his allies.
Though Bolsonaro may not be returning to the Planalto Palace himself anytime soon, he is still campaigning as if his name were on the ballot – and, in a sense, it is. His chosen successor could inherit much of his base, carrying Bolsonaro’s influence into the race against a wide left coalition.
Whether this path will lead to the resurgence they envision – or fade with shifting public sentiment and legal pressures – remains uncertain. But for now, they are poised to test the limits of a comeback inspired by their most influential ally.
