The last 48 hours has seen the most intense exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in almost a year of war in Gaza, as the Lebanese militant group fired projectiles deeper into Israeli territory than has previously been seen.
On Saturday Israel pounded Hezbollah targets with nearly 300 strikes it what they described as preemptive action to thwart a planned attack. Hezbollah meanwhile has been launching a barrage of rockets and other projectiles at Israel in what it says is retaliation for Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Hezbollah – the Lebanon-based, Iran-backed militant group – has been left reeling after two days of blasts targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members was followed by an Israeli strike on southern Beirut, which killed at least 45 people including a top commander and other senior operatives.
Here’s what we know about the escalation of tensions.
What’s happened, when and where?
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Lebanon was rocked by two similar, surprise attacks. On Tuesday afternoon, pagers exploded at the same time across several parts of Lebanon, including capital Beirut, and in several towns in the central Beqaa valley, strongholds for the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Almost exactly 24 hours later, Lebanon was rocked by a second attack Wednesday, when walkie-talkies detonated in the suburbs of Beirut and in the south of the country.
Lebanese health minister Firass Abiad put the death toll from both attacks at 39; 12 on Tuesday and 27 on Wednesday.
The exploding devices attacks were followed by an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Friday, which killed at least 45 including senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil, and levelled a multistory building in a densely populated neighborhood.
The developments put the region on a knife edge, with Hezbollah targeting northern Israel with a series of rockets and missiles overnight on Saturday into Sunday, striking deeper into Israeli territory than they have done in other recent attacks. The attacks, Hezbollah said, were in response to repeated Israeli strikes in Lebanon that have led to the deaths of “many civilians.” Among the targets, Hezbollah said it hit an air base with Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles, a longer-range weapon seemingly not used so far.
Most were intercepted but some fell, causing damage. The Israeli military reported impacts in Kiryat Bialik, Tsur Shalom and Moreshet near the port city of Haifa, around 40 km (25 miles) south of the border, marking one of the deepest direct hits by the Iran-backed group since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.
Schools have closed in many northern areas of Israel, and gatherings have been restricted.
Israel meanwhile fired nearly 300 projectiles into southern Lebanon on Saturday in what the military said was pre-emptive action against a planned Hezbollah attack. Israel continued its strikes into Sunday, with Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) reporting two people were killed Sunday morning in southern Lebanon.
Will the conflict escalate?
Exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah have occurred consistently since the outbreak of war in Gaza on October 8, the day after Hamas’ attack on Israel, in skirmishes which have long sparked fears of the fighting spilling over into a wider regional conflict.
Key players have at times appeared to walk right up to the brink, but tensions have de-escalated given the grave consequences of an all-out war in the Middle East.
However, the intensity of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah seen over the past few days has been unprecedented, renewing fears of a wider war that could drag in the entire region, as well as Israel’s chief ally the United States.
While Hezbollah’s leader has previously stated he does not want a fully-fledged regional war, experts have said he may now be under more pressure to act following the spate of explosions, and with Israel set on moving its military objectives to its northern border.
Israeli President Israel Herzog told Sky News on Sunday said that Israel “is not interested to be at war with Lebanon.” He instead blamed Hezbollah for the military escalation between the two nations.
Hezbollah has admitted the attacks have left them weakened but also show little sign of pulling back. Naim Qassim – the group’s second most important figure after leader Hassan Nasrallah – said a “a battle without limits” was now underway.
Why did Israel target Lebanon now?
Hezbollah and Israel have been in conflict for decades – but the two have ramped up their cross-border attacks on each other since last October when the war in Gaza began, following Palestinian militant group Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel.
Hezbollah is part of a larger Iran-led axis across the Middle East spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq that has engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies over the past 11 months.
The axis has said they will continue striking Israeli targets as long as the war in Gaza goes on, rebranding themselves as a “supportive front” for Palestinians in the strip, as described by a senior Hezbollah leader.
Israel may have chosen this timing for the attacks because it believed Hezbollah had discovered the pagers’ capability – making it a “use it or lose it” moment, said an Israeli source familiar with national security.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may also have wanted to shore up domestic support. Officials and residents from the northern region have become increasingly vocal about the need to return to their homes after being evacuated due to attacks, piling pressure on the government to act against the threat of Hezbollah’s rockets from southern Lebanon.
On Tuesday, Israel made it a new war objective to return Israel’s northern residents to their homes near the border – which has long been understood to be a political necessity.
Speaking on Sunday, Netanyahu again put the focus on ensuring the return of Israel citizens to their homes in northern Israel and to restore security in that region.
Speaking ahead of a government meeting, he said: “If Hezbollah didn’t get the message – I assure you – they will get the message. We are determined to return our citizens in the north to their homes safely.”
